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A sharp mid-March 2026 lithium/carbonate rebound is likely to distort EV battery benchmark $/kWh through CIF-to-contract translation and tender timing, misaligning what OEMs actually pay for LFP versus NMC.
Battery pack and cell benchmarks in 2025–2026 are diverging by chemistry, region, and contract timing, turning $/kWh from a trend into a risk variable.
A rebound in LFP-first benchmarks can ripple through global EV battery $/kWh expectations via tenders, CIF conversions, and policy pass-through.